Sep 16, 2024
On this week's
Stansberry Investor
Hour, Dan and Corey
welcome Pete Carmasino back to
the show. Pete is chief market
strategist at our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics. He's
also
editor of the Chaikin PowerTactics and Chaikin PowerTrader newsletters. With more than 25
years of experience in the
financial-services industry, Pete joins the podcast to share
some
of his wisdom on sector
rotations, pullbacks, and the housing market.
Pete kicks off the show by
talking about the Federal Reserve cutting interest
rates,
unemployment ticking higher,
and the difficulty bond managers are having with timing
the
market. He also shares his
thoughts on the Sahm Rule indicator, which says we're
currently
in a recession. Pete believes
that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will only do a 25-basis-point
rate
cut, but that ultimately Japan
will be the deciding factor in Powell's decision. This leads to
a
conversation about sector
rotation and which sectors are outperforming today.
(0:43)
Next, Pete gives pointers on
how to find investing opportunities within market rotations
and
pullbacks. He explains that a
lot of the sectors that are thriving today serve as bond
proxies,
and a lot of the individual
stocks that investors are flocking to are safe havens that pay
high
dividends. After, Pete talks
about the trend in oil and gas prices over the past two years
and
how it has been influenced by
the White House's efforts to refill the Strategic
Petroleum
Reserve. (18:46)
Finally, Pete shares why he
believes the housing market is on its way to reaching
an
"equilibrium" between buyers
and sellers. He says housing prices can stay high
(benefiting
sellers) while interest-rate
cuts will lower mortgages (benefiting buyers). Pete also
cites
increases to the lifetime
gift/estate tax exemption as a reason for the influx of
competitive
all-cash housing transactions.
(34:31)